By Dane Miller, SuperWest Sports
Conference affiliation is half the battle in making the expanded Playoff.
Last season, the Big 12 didn’t get an at-large bid while the Big Ten received three. There’s not even a guarantee that the winner of the Mountain West gets in the Playoff, either.
And unless Washington State or Oregon State goes undefeated, the chances of the leftover Pac-12 schools getting an invite are low.
Complicating the picture, the SEC is already engaged in a full-blown disinformation campaign before the season has even begun. If its propaganda machine is effective, the at-large bids could be even harder to come by.
Here’s how I view the teams from the West that are most likely to make the Playoff entering the 2025 season.
1. Oregon Ducks
Nobody doubts Oregon’s ability to make the Playoff.
But there are plenty who question whether the Ducks can win once they get there. The narrative around the program is that it can’t win the “big games.”
Until UO proves otherwise, the expectations for a deep run are justifiably tempered.
2. Arizona State Sun Devils
Just how important was Cam Skattebo to Arizona State’s success? We are all about to find out.
The Sun Devils return plenty of contributors on both sides of the ball, and the expectations in Tempe are high.
If ASU can replace Skattebo’s gritty production, it’s fair to expect another appearance in the Playoff.
3. Boise State Broncos
The Mountain West runs through Boise State.
Sure, Ashton Jeanty is off to the NFL. But the culture of the program is strong, and there are few challengers in the MWC.
If the Broncos win every conference game they play, they should be in the mix as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
4. BYU Cougars
The issues surrounding quarterback Jake Retzlaff have cast doubt on BYU’s upcoming season. Even so, the program is continuing to rise and finds itself in a favorable position.
The Big 12 will likely be wide-open once again, and the Cougars could take advantage.
But the Conference is at an artificial disadvantage and the only way to the Playoff might be through winning the league’s championship game.
5. USC Trojans
The expectations are always high at USC. It benefits from a strong national brand that appeals to the Playoff Committee.
If the Trojans win enough games this year to be in contention, the brass at the Big Ten will push hard for an invitation.
That’s just the way it goes these days when brand names mean more than the actual product on the field.
6. Washington Huksies
There’s some recency bias that favors Washington in the eyes of the Playoff Committee.
The program proved it belonged a few years ago with Kalen DeBoer leading the way, and the memory of that run to the National Championship game hasn’t been forgotten.
Combined with the deference that the Big Ten commands, an at-large bid is there for the taking if UW is good enough to seize it.
7. Colorado Buffaloes
Deion Sanders has Colorado in a favorable position.
If the Buffs are in the at-large discussion at the end of the year, his personal clout will have favorable effects on the members of the Committee.
But to get there, CU must continue to take steps forward. Sanders has advanced the program in back-to-back years, and it’s fair to expect continued progress in his third season.
8. Utah Utes
The Cam Rising era is finally over, and Utah can turn the page.
With a new offensive coordinator and quarterback, there’s reason to believe the Utes will have a much stronger season than last year.
Anybody can win the Big 12 and all that matters is getting to the Big 12 Championship Game. Why not Utah?
9. UNLV Rebels
The Rebels lost their head coach and offensive coordinator over the offseason.
But the foundation of the program is in reasonable shape. Even so, UNLV’s football brand is undeveloped, and the Committee is susceptible to SEC propaganda.
That likely means the Rebels will have to go 4-0 in the nonconference season to have a shot, even if they win the MWC.
10. Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers have an interesting schedule in 2025, to say the least.
The only rough comparison is to Notre Dame, and the Irish proved independents can make the Playoff even with a loss on their record.
But Oregon State would be eliminated from contention with two defeats, and they face Texas Tech, then Oregon in Weeks Three and Four.
Miller covers College Basketball and College Football as well as Formula 1 racing as a Senior Writer and Assistant Editor for SuperWest Sports.
