When Nikhil Kamath, co-founder of Zerodha, ordered a ₹20,000 pair of Hoka shoes via quick commerce only to find they didn’t fit quite right, it wasn’t just buyer’s remorse — it sparked a deeper question. As India barrels toward higher GDP per capita and rising wages, how sustainable is the ultra-fast delivery model that’s come to define urban convenience? With 10-minute grocery drops becoming the norm and platforms like Blinkit, Zepto, and Swiggy Instamart racing against the clock, Kamath’s musings strike a nerve at the intersection of economics, tech, and consumer behavior.
In a thought-provoking post on X (formerly Twitter), Kamath wrote, “This is quite interesting. Delivery and speed of delivery have become a subject of national interest of late — what’s sustainable as GDP per capita grows and wages per hour increase? If GDP per capita goes to 5k USD (god willing🤞), what will delivery wages have to rise to, and is it sustainable at that point?”
He drew a comparison to the legendary Mumbai Dabbawalas, whose precision logistics have served as a model of low-cost efficiency for decades. Kamath noted that each Dabbawala typically serves about 30 customers, earning ₹9,000 to ₹12,000 monthly. With a time-pressed routine involving just 40 seconds at major train stations and 20 seconds at smaller stops, their workflow exemplifies operational excellence. Today, Dabbawalas are modernizing through platforms like DigitalDabbawala and Dabbawala’s Kitchen, expanding into cloud kitchens and doorstep services.
Kamath also questioned the psychological value embedded in high-order purchases. “I recently bought a pair of Hoka shoes via quick commerce while travelling — turned out a bit tight, and I regretted it instantly. At Rs.20k for a pair of shoes, the price bakes in the experience of going to a store, someone suggesting which shoe based on foot shape etc and treating u in a certain way… Is there a cap to AOV? Also, what’s the volume of consumers who don’t care enough in India and will forego the store experience on high-value goods?”
He added, “Commodity is different from brand, if that makes sense.”
His post sparked a flurry of responses. One user ran a quick analysis, writing, “In the US, GDP per capita was $5,204 & avg wage was $6,186 (1.2x). India’s now at $5,000 wage with $2,700 GDPpc (1.85x). As India hits $5,000 GDPpc, with formalization, the ratio may drop to 1.4x. So, wages could rise to $7,000/yr.”
Another echoed Kamath’s concerns, saying, “Great points! As wages rise, quick-commerce will need to automate more to stay viable. High-value items like shoes still need the ‘human touch’ of stores. Maybe the future is a hybrid model: speed for essentials, experience for premium buys!”
One user reflected on the Dabbawala analogy: “Given their incredible efficiency and low cost, do you think the Dabbawalas’ model could inspire sustainable innovations in quick commerce, especially for high-value deliveries, or are the two systems too fundamentally different to align?”
Another pointed out a deeper contradiction: “There’s a paradoxical situation here in QCom. On one hand, you can’t charge more than the MRP on packaged things while on the other hand groceries and essentials generally don’t make up the AOV required to turn profitable. Companies have to find a balance between the two ASAP.”
