The Stock Market Finally Had a Winning Week. Why It Might Not Last.

Text size Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research: “We are now raising the odds of a recession from 30% to 40%.” Christopher Goodney / Bloomberg The stock market ended its multiweek losing streak, and like a sports team that finally got a win, it’s worth celebrating. It just does not mean the team — or … Read more

Markets Finally Reversed Their Losing Streaks. The Fed Might Avoid Inflicting More Pain, After All.

Text size A ‘help wanted’ sign is displayed in a Manhattan store in New York City. Spencer Platt / Getty Images Nothing lasts forever, not even a stock market decline. But just because a market stops going down does not mean it will continue to rise. This past week, the S&P 500 spirit Nasdaq Composite … Read more

This Rally Could Force the Fed to Raise Rates Higher

The markets make the news, not the other way around, an insight that has been quite humbling to one who has made a living by reporting and analyzing the impact of news on financial markets. Consider the position of policy makers. With some justification, they think their decisions about interest rates or fiscal matters determine … Read more

Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Rise with 8-Week Losing Streak Set to End

Text size The Federal Reserve’s pathway on monetary policy remains a major risk for investors. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images Stocks edged higher on Friday with U.S. indexes on track to snap their longest weekly losing streak in decades. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 20 points, or less than 0.1%, after the … Read more

Stocks Wrap Up Another Strong Session

Text size Tech stocks were feeling some pressure Thursday. Getty Images Stocks continued their rally Thursday, as the market chewed over Federal Reserve minutes that suggested the central bank could slow down its rate-hiking at some point soon.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 518 points, or 1.6%. The S&P 500 gained 2%, and the … Read more

How Larry Summers Got His Inflation Call Right: By Applying Economic History

Text size “The only thing we have to learn from empirically is history,” Larry Summers, former U.S. Treasury secretary, said recently in explaining his contrarian views on inflation. Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg About the author: Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon professor of government at Harvard University. Is the U.S. economy headed for a hard landing? Federal Reserve … Read more

Bernanke on Inflation: Why the Fed Delayed Responding, How It Missed Labor Market Strength

Text size The pandemic scrambled usually reliable indicators of labor market strength, writes former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke, pictured in 2018. Win McNamee / Getty Images About the author: Ben S. Bernanke was chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from February 2006 through January 2014. Federal Reserve Chair … Read more

Inflation and Unemployment Haven’t Behaved Like This in 70 Years. Why It Matters.

In the early 1950s, inflation climbed above 8% and unemployment registered below 4%. Above, a help wanted sign outside a factory gate in 1952. Debrocke / Alamy Text size The last time the US saw a combination of high inflation and low unemployment like today was seven decades ago. That makes it particularly challenging for … Read more

Fed Sees Half-Point Rate Hikes as Appropriate at ‘Next Couple of Meetings’

Federal Reserve officials said they anticipated half-percentage-point interest rate increases “would likely be appropriate at the next couple of meetings” as they focus on bringing down surging inflation against a slowing but still strong economy. Minutes from the Fed’s May 3-4 meeting, released Wednesday after their usual three-week lag, also showed that a number of … Read more

The Fed Minutes Are Here. 4 Key Themes to Watch.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting can be read here. Read a preview below and check back for more analysis. When the Federal Reserve on Wednesday releases the minutes from its most recent policy meeting, investors will get a deeper look at deliberations over monetary policy tightening and officials’ views of the economy. During … Read more