Pfizer, Moderna to see sales decline for COVID shots before recovery (NYSE:PFE)

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In the days to come, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) and Moderna (MRNA) will confirm investors’ worst fears, posting a sequential decline in COVID vaccine sales with their 2Q 2022 earnings reports, according to data analytics firm Airfinity.

In its latest forecast, the London-based firm projects Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) vaccine to generate $4.8B in revenue for the quarter, implying as much as ~63% decline from the $13.2B revenue in the first quarter. For Moderna (MRNA), Airfinity estimates 2.3B in sales for its COVID-19 shot, indicating a ~62% drop from $5.9B in the preceding quarter.

Meanwhile, AstraZeneca (AZN) is expected to add $386M from its vector-based COVID shot in 2Q 2022, with a 66% decline from the previous quarter.

The projections based on the data tracking the global vaccine deliveries reflect a decline in demand for COVID-19 vaccines around the world, Airfinity noted.

Last Friday, a Washington Post report underscored the future trajectory of the current crop of vaccines: The Biden administration’s plans to pause second booster shots for those under 50 ahead of an Omicron-adapted booster rollout in September.

“Demand for vaccines, particularly in high income countries, has been falling since the beginning of the year. We have seen countries canceling or postponing orders,” the firm’s Analytics Director, Dr. Matt Linley said.

“Most notably the EU and UK pushing back deliveries to wait for new variant targeting vaccines to become available,” he added.

Last week, The Financial Times reported that the EU member states are close to reaching a deal with Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) to push back the COVID-19 vaccine shipments to 2024. Moderna (MRNA), whose contract with the EU is set to expire this year, has already said its COVID-19 deliveries could be delayed to early 2023.

However, the new entrant to the field, Novavax (NVAX), is likely to buck the trend, Airfinity pointed out, estimating a ~29% sequential growth in revenue for the company’s protein-based shot, which was recently added to the US immunization drive.

As forecasted by the firm, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), the third COVID-19 vaccine developer to receive the US regulatory nod, grew its COVID vaccine sales in 2Q 2022 from the first quarter, albeit at a slower clip of ~19%.

However, the vaccine makers will end the year on a strong footing thanks to the redesigned shots. The US has already advised vaccine developers to update their vaccines for BA.4 and BA.4 subvariants of the Omicron in preparation for a fall booster rollout.

According to Airfinity, the full-year vaccine sales at Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) and Moderna (MRNA) are expected to bounce back to account for up to 21% of the market in 2022.

The firm projects Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) to generate $33B revenue from both new and original COVID vaccines in 2022, a ~4% higher than the management guidance. Meanwhile, Moderna (MRNA) is expected to surpass last year’s figure of $17.6B to generate $18.8B in 2022, yet falling short of the $21B guidance.

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