Powell, July 15
- It is very difficult to know what the economy is going to do
- I always thought there was a way to get inflation down to 2% without the kind of pain that is typical
- A hard landing scenario is not a likely scenario
- I am very happy to do this work
- Will remain in office until May 2026
- When the Fed is confident about inflation, it will be time to act
- The Eurozone has gone through a significant period of low growth and is in a different position to the United States
- There are few temporal differences between the world’s central banks, but when history is written, it will be about policy commonalities.
- The Fed meeting typically ends at 11 a.m. before the decision.
- Fed Has Authority It Needs, Federal Reserve Act Is in ‘Ideal Position’
- I worry about how US deficits evolve “over time”, but not about the Fed’s role in advising policy
Powell highlighted the improvement in the CPI and said they were getting data that made them more confident “lately.”
Goldman Sachs spoke There was a rate cut in July today, and those odds were up to 13% before Powell, but they’ve come down to 6% since Powell spoke. If he wanted to put that issue on the table, it had to be today, with the power outage that happened on Friday.