Bitcoin surged Monday after an assassination attempt on Donald Trump as traders increased their bets on the former president winning the US presidential election in November.
The price of bitcoin rose 9.1% to $62,830, its highest level in two weeks, after Trump resigned. injured ear in an assassination attempt by a gunman at a campaign rally over the weekend. The Republican is considered the most crypto-friendly candidate, having hosted industry executives at Mar-a-Lago and expressed enthusiasm for bitcoin mining in the United States.
Trump’s campaign also accepted cryptocurrency payments, a first for a major U.S. political party, raising hopes of a departure from the U.S. regulatory crackdown on the sector seen in recent years.
“The probability of a Donald Trump victory has increased significantly,” said Grzegorz Dróżdż, a market analyst at currency firm Conotoxia, adding that a Trump presidency would have “a positive impact” on crypto.
Trump’s implied odds of winning in November rose shortly after the shooting, according to live trading on political betting site PredictIt.
Shares of Truth Social, Trump’s social network, soared 37% in early morning trading in New York. Trump Media & Technology Group, which went public in March in a merger with a blank-check company, rose ahead of the debate between Trump and President Joe Biden last month.
The diminishing chances of a second Trump term were also felt in financial markets. U.S. Treasury yields climbed, in a more muted version of the reaction that followed Biden’s disastrous debate performance.
Many investors believe Trump’s tax-cutting policies would lead to higher deficits and inflation, which would hit U.S. Treasuries and boost the dollar, in a pattern similar to that seen after his 2016 election victory.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was flat after weakening so far in July as traders increased bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 0.04 percentage points to 4.22%, reflecting a slight decline in prices. Wall Street’s flagship S&P 500 index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% and 0.6%.
Monday’s movements ‘ring'[s] “With the Trumpian theme given the popular narrative that he is good for business and… his pro-crypto stance,” Rabobank analysts said in a note to clients.
“For markets, the complexity of the US political landscape boils down to the assumption that the weekend’s events will increase Trump’s chances of winning the November presidential election,” they added.
Bitcoin Bitcoin peaked above $70,000 in mid-March but has struggled to advance since April’s so-called halving event, when the number of daily bitcoins available for miners to share to secure the bitcoin network fell from 900 to 450. Some analysts expected bitcoin to rebound after the halving.